The dominoes slowly fall as we head towards a distressed UK Real Estate market

The UK’s commercial property sector is currently facing a variety of challenges – increasing interest rates, stubborn inflation, falling property values, and liquidity issues for lenders and borrowers. All these elements have been lining-up for some time like a series of interconnected dominoes. As each one falls, it knocks into the other and so on as the continuing downward pressures come to bear on the market.

All of this is happening in slow motion but, while the pace is gradual, inactivity surrounding this impending crisis will lead to dire consequences for lenders, borrowers, and other stakeholders.

In this article, we will explore the factors contributing to this crisis and discuss how Newmanor Law, a specialist commercial property finance firm, is uniquely positioned to assist all parties involved in navigating these challenges.

The Domino Effect

Like a delicate equilibrium disrupted, the UK commercial property market finds itself grappling with a multitude of challenges.

The first domino to fall was rising interest rates as the Bank of England attempted to grapple with inflation and it still continues to do so. At the time of writing, the MPC have most recently caught out most commentators with a 50bps increase raising the base rate to 5% on 22 June. As borrowing continues to become more expensive, this puts pressure on borrowers, who are either struggling to meet their current obligations or seeking refinance at this critical time. This is when the second domino starts to topple — falling property values. The conventional wisdom is that the market is ripe for a correction, leaving investors and owners with diminished equity whilst facing increasing levels of debt.

The third domino, liquidity issues for lenders, exacerbates the situation further. With borrowers defaulting on their payments and property values declining, lenders find themselves holding a shrinking pool of valuable assets or difficulties in finding suitable deals that they can fund. This lack of liquidity limits their ability to extend credit and refinance troubled loans. Eventually, the falling dominoes will threaten the entire UK commercial real estate landscape.

The Consequences of Inactivity

The slow-motion descent into distress poses grave consequences for all stakeholders involved. For lenders, the inability to refinance loans or recover their investments can severely impact their financial stability. If refinancing becomes unattainable, disposing of assets may be the only viable course of action. However, acting too late risks flooding the market with similar assets, causing a price correction that further erodes their value. Caught in a precarious situation, lenders are facing the challenge of calling the bottom of an unpredictable market.

Borrowers, too, face difficult decisions ahead. Stuck in an unfavourable borrowing environment, they are finding it increasingly difficult to secure refinancing or restructure their existing loans. Without a proactive approach to address these issues, borrowers risk defaulting on their obligations, potentially leading to enforcement and the loss of their properties.

Inaction, therefore, has far-reaching consequences that can spell disaster for lenders and borrowers alike.

What can be done now

Waiting for the dominoes to finish falling is not a viable option and action needs to be taken now by both lenders and borrower alike.

Lenders should be carefully assessing their loan portfolios and identifying potential problem loans. It is crucial for them to communicate openly with borrowers and explore options such as pre-payments, injection of additional borrower equity, extending repayment dates and negotiating additional security. Additionally, lenders should closely monitor market trends and exercise prudence when considering new lending opportunities – taking the time to complete proper due diligence (including legal reporting) is now more important than ever.

For borrowers, it is essential to conduct a thorough assessment of their financial position. Those with operational assets should explore measures to enhance cash flow, such as renegotiating lease terms or reducing running costs. Engaging in open and transparent discussions with lenders is crucial for loan amendments, refinancing options, or potential asset sales.

Both lenders and borrowers should consider alternative financing options. They could explore partnerships, joint ventures, or accessing alternative funding sources that can provide additional liquidity and flexibility. This may involve seeking equity investors or exploring creative financing structures tailored to specific circumstances.

How Newmanor Law can help

In the face of the slow-motion domino effect gripping the real estate market, lenders and borrowers must be proactive in addressing the challenges at hand. Open communication, careful assessment of positions, exploring alternative options, and seeking expert advice are crucial steps for both parties.

At boutique City law firm, Newmanor Law, we bring a wealth of experience to the table, with our focus on commercial property and commercial property finance and having worked across all levels of the capital stack and for both lenders and borrowers. We are experienced in advising on and executing challenging transactions and help stakeholders make informed decisions to safeguard their interests. This is combined with fixed-fee pricing and a commitment to delivering timely and excellent service.

If you have any questions or comments about this article or the issues raised, please email Alex Pelopidas, Finance Partner, at Newmanor Law  – alex.pelopidas@newmanor.com.